Energy industry trends

Current Situation: Bioenergy is already being used globally as part of the renewable energy mix, but it produces CO2 emissions during combustion. By integrating carbon capture technologies, BECCS can capture these emissions and store them underground, effectively removing CO2 from the carbon cycle. BECCS projects are in pilot stages, with large-scale implementation still limited by technological and economic barriers.

Expected Development: In the next decade, BECCS is expected to play a crucial role in decarbonizing sectors such as power generation, heavy industries, and even agriculture. As global governments set stricter carbon reduction targets, BECCS could become a key tool for reaching net-zero emissions, particularly in regions with abundant biomass resources and existing infrastructure for carbon storage.

Challenges: BECCS faces several significant challenges, including high costs, the need for large-scale biomass production, and concerns about the sustainability of biomass sourcing. The technology for carbon capture and storage (CCS) is expensive, and the infrastructure required for CO2 transport and storage is underdeveloped. Additionally, competition with food production for land use may pose ethical and logistical concerns.

Time to Maximum Impact: 8-10 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Ecological

This year’s trend development

Current Situation: Many communities, particularly in developing nations or economically struggling regions, expect oil and gas companies to provide significant employment opportunities as part of their corporate social responsibility. Companies are often seen as benefiting from local resources without sufficiently contributing to regional development.

Expected Development: In the coming 2-4 years, upstream companies will be required to create more jobs locally, invest in community training programs, and promote local business engagement. Failure to do so may lead to resistance from governments and local communities, which can impact exploration licenses and approvals.

Challenges: The challenge lies in aligning exploration activities with regional employment needs, particularly in remote or underdeveloped regions. There is also the added complexity of training and upskilling local workers to meet the technical demands of upstream operations.

Time to Maximum Impact: 2-4 years

Potential Impact: Medium

STEEP Segment: Social

This year’s trend development

Current Situation: Automated systems are already playing a significant role in upstream activities, particularly in drilling platforms, where remote-operated machinery and real-time monitoring are becoming common. Automation is helping to optimize the drilling process, increase precision, and improve operational safety.

Expected Development: Over the next 4-6 years, advancements in AI and robotics will drive even more sophisticated automation, potentially leading to fully autonomous drilling rigs. Companies that embrace this technology will likely see significant cost reductions and increased efficiency in operations.

Challenges: High initial investment costs, potential job losses, and cybersecurity risks associated with automating critical operations are key challenges. Ensuring that human workers can manage and oversee these advanced systems will also require significant upskilling.

Time to Maximum Impact: 4-6 years

Potential Impact: High

STEEP Segment: Technological

This year’s trend development

Current Situation: Currently, hydrogen production is largely reliant on natural gas (grey hydrogen), contributing significantly to CO2 emissions. However, the push toward carbon neutrality is driving governments and industries to invest in green hydrogen technologies. Although still in its early stages, green hydrogen production is receiving growing interest and financial backing from both the public and private sectors.

Expected Development: The scaling of green hydrogen production will likely depend on advancements in electrolyzer technology, reductions in renewable energy costs, and the creation of supportive policy frameworks. Key applications include decarbonizing heavy industries (steel, chemicals), powering hydrogen fuel cells in transportation, and energy storage to balance renewable energy supply and demand. New infrastructure will be needed to transport, store, and distribute green hydrogen.

Challenges: High production costs, inefficient current electrolyzer technology, and the need for significant investment in infrastructure (pipelines, storage) are major challenges. Additionally, the energy efficiency of green hydrogen processes needs improvement for the technology to compete with fossil fuels on a large scale.

Time to Maximum Impact: 8-10 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Ecological

This year’s trend development

Current Situation: Co-bots are already used in some industries, typically for repetitive or dangerous tasks, but most current models are not humanoid in form. Humanoid co-bots represent the next evolution, offering enhanced dexterity and mobility, allowing them to take on more varied roles. While humanoid robots are still in development and at the prototype stage, companies like Tesla, Boston Dynamics, and Honda are driving innovation in this space.

Expected Development: The next few years will see humanoid utility co-bots transition from specialized industrial settings to broader use cases, including logistics, healthcare (patient care, elderly assistance), and even household tasks. Advances in AI, machine learning, and robotics will make these robots more autonomous, adaptable, and capable of handling tasks traditionally done by humans. Integration into smart factories and homes will likely accelerate as the technology matures.

Challenges: Key challenges include high production and development costs, concerns about job displacement, and the complexity of creating robots that can safely and efficiently interact with humans in dynamic environments. Ensuring safety standards, addressing ethical concerns, and overcoming societal resistance to humanoid robots will also be critical to broader acceptance.

Time to Maximum Impact: 6-8 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Technological

This year’s trend development

Current Situation: While renewable energy generation is expanding rapidly, energy storage infrastructure has lagged behind. Current storage solutions, such as lithium-ion batteries, are expensive and have limitations in scale and duration. However, increasing investment in research and development is driving down costs, improving efficiency, and expanding the deployment of storage systems, especially in regions with high renewable energy penetration.

Expected Development: The energy storage market is expected to grow exponentially as advancements in battery technology (e.g., solid-state batteries), large-scale grid storage solutions, and energy management systems make storage more cost-effective and scalable. New business models, such as energy storage-as-a-service, and government incentives will further drive investment. Energy storage will play a pivotal role in stabilizing grids, enabling distributed energy systems, and supporting electric vehicle (EV) integration.

Challenges: Key challenges include high upfront costs, regulatory barriers, and the need for better long-duration storage solutions to complement short-term battery systems. Additionally, sourcing raw materials like lithium and cobalt for batteries poses supply chain risks and environmental concerns. Policy uncertainty in some regions could also hinder long-term investment.

Time to Maximum Impact: 4-6 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Economic

This year’s trend development

Current Situation: Many power grids around the world are aging and lack the flexibility to accommodate the growing share of decentralized renewable energy sources. Outages, inefficiencies, and limited data on grid performance pose challenges to utilities. However, increasing pressure from governments, energy companies, and consumers is driving investments in modernizing grid infrastructure and digital technologies.

Expected Development: Grid modernization will accelerate with investments in smart grid technology, including real-time data monitoring, automated distribution systems, and AI-driven analytics for predictive maintenance. Digitalization will enable better management of energy supply and demand, improved outage detection, and more efficient integration of distributed energy resources (DERs), like rooftop solar and energy storage. This will lead to more flexible, responsive grids capable of meeting future energy demands.

Challenges: The main challenges include the high costs of upgrading aging infrastructure, regulatory hurdles, and cybersecurity risks associated with more connected grid systems. Utilities will also need to manage vast amounts of data generated by digital systems and ensure interoperability between different technologies. Coordinating efforts across regions and utilities will be crucial for achieving widespread modernization.

Time to Maximum Impact: 6-8 years

Potential Impact: Very High

STEEP Segment: Technological

This year’s trend development

Current Situation: Many refineries are exploring ways to maximize their profit margins by transitioning from producing basic fuels like gasoline and diesel to higher-value products with greater demand, such as biofuels and petrochemicals.

Expected Development: Over the next 4-6 years, the focus on value-added products will grow, with refineries investing in flexible production systems that allow them to shift production based on market demand.

Challenges: Transitioning to value-added production requires significant investment in technology and expertise. Market demand for specialty products can be volatile, and competition in this segment is intensifying.

Time to Maximum Impact: 4-6 years

Potential Impact: Medium to High

STEEP Segment: Economic

This year's trend development

Current Situation: P2P energy trading is in its early stages, with pilot projects underway in various regions, including Europe, Australia, and the U.S. Increasing deployment of distributed energy resources (DERs), like residential solar panels and home battery systems, is creating excess energy that can be traded. While traditional utilities still dominate energy distribution, prosumers are seeking more flexibility and autonomy, driving the growth of P2P markets.

Expected Development: The rise of P2P energy markets will accelerate with advances in blockchain and smart grid technologies, allowing secure, transparent, and efficient transactions. Localized energy trading platforms will facilitate the exchange of energy within communities, potentially reducing dependence on centralized utilities. As the number of prosumers increases, P2P markets will become more integrated into national grids, enabling better energy distribution and lower costs for consumers.

Challenges: Key challenges include regulatory uncertainty, integration with existing grid infrastructure, and the need for sophisticated digital platforms to handle transactions. P2P energy markets must also ensure energy security and stability, especially as they grow in scale. Cybersecurity risks and concerns over fair market access for all participants will need to be addressed.

Time to Maximum Impact: 4-6 years

Potential Impact: High

STEEP Segment: Social

This year's trend development